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Dossiers

The 5 threads too big for a single card — told in full, in sequence.

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Unscored · 97 entries · last change 2026-08-16
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5 threads too big for one ledger row. Each is told the same way: what happened, what is settled, what is still open, then both sides at their strongest.

Project 2025 · 6 documented stepsContested / partial

Project 2025: the disavowal and the record

He said he knew nothing about it. What is actually documented?

A 920-page governing blueprint, published by the Heritage Foundation in April 2023, written with contributions from more than 100 conservative organizations and dozens of former Trump officials. During the 2024 campaign he said he knew nothing about it. Roughly half of its executive-action agenda is now initiated or complete. Both of those statements are documented, and the space between them is what this dossier covers.

What happened, in sequence

April 2023
The document is published
Heritage releases Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, the ninth edition of a series it has produced since 1981. It is public, its authorship is credited, and its contributor list includes at least 140 people who worked in the first Trump administration. Nothing about it is secret at any point.
July 5, 2024
The disavowal
On Truth Social he writes that he knows nothing about Project 2025, has no idea who is behind it, and disagrees with some of what it says. He repeats the disclaimer at the September 2024 debate. In a later interview he refines it: he disagrees with parts of it, not all of it. The campaign’s stated platform is Agenda 47, a separate and shorter document.
Late 2024
Heritage responds
Project 2025’s director steps down after the disavowal. Heritage maintains the document is a policy resource for any conservative administration, not a Trump campaign product, a characterization that is accurate as to its formal status.
January 2025
The authors take office
Russ Vought, who wrote the Mandate chapter on executive power, is nominated and later confirmed as OMB Director. Other contributors are appointed across the FCC, immigration enforcement, intelligence, and the State Department. This is the hardest fact in the dossier: it is a Senate confirmation record, not an inference.
2025
The reference becomes approving
In a 2025 post he references Vought’s Project 2025 role favorably, after having disclaimed knowledge of the project the year before. Both posts are primary documents and both are recorded here.
January 2026
The trackers report
The Center for Progressive Reform and Governing for Impact count 283 of 532 identified executive-action proposals initiated or completed (53%), twelve months in. A separate crowdsourced tracker reports roughly 48–50% of 317 catalogued objectives. Multiple independent trackers converge near half.

Settled — not in dispute

The document exists, is public, and its authorship is credited.
He publicly disclaimed knowledge of it in July 2024 and repeated that in September 2024.
Named contributors hold senior administration positions, confirmed by the Senate.
Roughly half of its executive-action proposals have been initiated or completed.

Open — the evidence does not settle it

?Whether the disavowal was accurate at the time it was made. No document establishes what he had or had not read, and intent is not observable.
?Whether overlap proves adoption. Substantial overlap between a conservative think-tank agenda and a Republican administration is expected regardless of coordination. That objection is real and is not answered by the percentage.
?What the percentages mean. The two trackers use different denominators (532 vs 317) and different definitions of "complete," so their similar-looking numbers are not comparable to each other, and neither measures how much of the 920 pages became policy.

The strongest version of each side

The strongest case against reading this as a hidden plan: no administration document adopts Project 2025 by name, a blueprint is not a legal instrument, and a party’s policy shop and its president drawing on the same intellectual well is ordinary politics. The strongest case for: the author of the executive-power chapter runs OMB, and the sequencing of early executive actions tracks the document closely enough that independent trackers built matching tools around it.
DOGE · 6 documented stepsConcluded

DOGE: $2 trillion promised, $215 billion claimed, and what the audit found

Did it save money? A federal audit answered that two days ago.

The Department of Government Efficiency was created on the first day of the second term and shut down on July 4, 2026. It promised $2 trillion in savings, claimed $215 billion, and on August 6, 2026 the Government Accountability Office reported that a large share of the audited portion of that figure was overstated, unverifiable, or never happened. The workforce reduction, however, was real and measurable, which is why this dossier has two halves that do not cancel out.

What happened, in sequence

January 20, 2025
Created by executive order
DOGE is established on inauguration day with Elon Musk as its public face, operating as a special government employee. Its remit is contracts, grants, leases, and headcount across a roughly $7 trillion federal budget. An authorization runs to mid-2026.
2024–2025
The target falls, twice
The stated goal begins at $2 trillion during the campaign. It is revised to $1 trillion, then in a cabinet meeting Musk projects $150 billion for fiscal 2026 (7.5% of the original promise). The revisions are public and on the record.
Through 2025
The Wall of Receipts, and its retractions
DOGE publishes itemized savings on a public page and on X. Reporters find errors repeatedly: a $1.9 billion Treasury contract cancelled under the prior administration, more than 1,000 contract cancellations quietly removed in one month erasing about $4 billion. DOGE publishes roughly a third of its claimed cuts, making independent checking hard by construction.
Late May 2025
Musk leaves
His special-government-employee status ends and he returns to his companies, following a public falling-out with the President. DOGE continues without its principal.
July 4, 2026
DOGE ends
The initiative reaches a self-imposed termination date and shuts down; OPM Director Scott Kupor confirms its duties were absorbed by other agencies. Its final six months of numbers were never updated. The administration has said it does not plan a final accounting.
August 6, 2026
GAO reports
The audit (requested by Senators Blumenthal and Peters, both Democrats, which is worth stating plainly) examined $110 billion of the $215 billion claimed. Findings: about 96% of the $49.2 billion claimed from terminating roughly 16,000 grants could not be verified. Of 13,476 contracts DOGE said it terminated, nearly 2,000 were not, worth about $27.4 billion. Of $61 billion in claimed contract savings, more than half (nearly $35 billion) was either not terminated or could not be corroborated. 108 of 264 lease terminations were already being phased out before DOGE existed. A $1.7 billion Defense Health Agency IT contract covering 700+ military treatment facilities was never terminated or reduced: "Thus, no savings were achieved." DOGE did not consistently apply its own stated methodology.

Settled — not in dispute

Federal civilian employment fell by roughly 352,000 (about 11.7%). That reduction is real, measured by BLS, and is the single largest driver of the term’s weak headline job numbers.
DOGE claimed $215 billion in savings and never produced a final accounting.
GAO could not verify large portions of the audited $110 billion, and identified specific claims for savings that did not occur.
The hiring freeze has ended; the federal government posted more than 104,000 jobs in the first five months of 2026.

Open — the evidence does not settle it

?The true net fiscal effect. Nobody has published one. It would have to offset any real savings against severance, rehiring, lost enforcement and revenue-collection capacity, litigation costs, and paying employees not to work. Some analysts conclude the net was negative; that conclusion is not established either.
?Program consequences. Modeling published in The Lancet projected substantial excess mortality from interrupted USAID programs through 2030. Those projections rest on assumptions about whether other donors backfill, and are contested on that basis.
?Whether the underlying critique survives the vehicle. That federal procurement contains waste is not a partisan claim and was not disproved by this audit. What the audit disproved was this particular accounting of it.

The strongest version of each side

The administration’s strongest ground: the workforce did shrink, permanently reversing a long-run trend, and no audit disputes that. The critique’s strongest ground: a cost-cutting body whose central artifact was a public savings ledger produced a ledger that a nonpartisan auditor found substantially unverifiable, and then declined to produce a final accounting. Both of those are in the record.
Immigration enforcement · 6 documented stepsIn force

Interior enforcement: the 92% drop, and the custody record

The clearest success and the gravest allegations are in the same policy.

This is the entry where the archive’s refusal to score is doing the most work. The administration’s central claimed achievement (a 92% fall in southern border apprehensions) is real and measured. So is a record number of deaths in immigration custody. Neither figure cancels the other, and no honest presentation lets one of them stand in for the whole.

What happened, in sequence

January 2025 onward
Enforcement expands inward
Arrest priorities widen beyond people with criminal convictions. Detention capacity expands rapidly, including into converted warehouses and onto military installations such as Camp East Montana at Fort Bliss.
Through 2025
Crossings collapse
Southern border apprehensions fall to 85,218 over twelve months, against the final twelve months of the prior administration (a 92% decline). This is the administration’s central claimed achievement and it is verified by CBP data.
2025
Deaths in custody reach a two-decade high
ICE reports 33 deaths in custody during 2025, the highest annual total in more than twenty years. The detained population exceeds 60,000, with about 86% held in privately operated facilities.
January 3, 2026
A death is ruled a homicide
Geraldo Lunas Campos, 55, a Cuban national paroled into the US in 1996 with a criminal record ICE described as spanning 1997 to 2015, dies at Camp East Montana after being placed in segregation. ICE’s statement describes medical distress. The El Paso County Medical Examiner rules the death a homicide: asphyxia from neck and torso compression. Six people die in ICE custody that month across four states; two more are killed in shootings involving ICE agents in public.
February 2026
A court orders conditions fixed
A federal judge rules ICE must improve conditions in California detention facilities: adequate health-care staffing, access to specialists, timely care and medication. Separately, federal appeals courts reject the administration’s reinterpretation of mandatory-detention law.
April–July 2026
The data goes dark, then returns
ICE publishes no enforcement data between April and July 11, 2026. When it resumes, the figures show 46,436 of 65,765 people in detention (about 71%) have no criminal conviction. By August 4, at least 24 people have died in custody in 2026, on pace to exceed the 2025 record.

Settled — not in dispute

Southern border apprehensions fell 92%, the largest measured change of the term in any domain.
ICE reported 33 deaths in custody in 2025, the highest in over two decades, with at least 24 more by early August 2026.
A medical examiner ruled one January 2026 custody death a homicide, contradicting ICE’s own characterization.
About 71% of people in ICE detention as of July 2026 had no criminal conviction.
Federal courts have ordered conditions improvements and rejected the administration’s mandatory-detention interpretation.

Open — the evidence does not settle it

?How much of the apprehension decline is deterrence from these policies versus changed conditions in origin and transit countries, Mexican enforcement, or people simply not attempting the crossing. No published study isolates the shares.
?Whether the death rate per detainee has risen or whether deaths rose because the detained population rose. This is answerable arithmetic and the archive has not found a published, methodologically clean version of it.
?The full custody death count. ICE’s disclosures are legally required but frequently late and thin, and independent trackers and ICE do not always agree on cause of death.

The strongest version of each side

Supporters argue that a 92% reduction in crossings is exactly what was promised and delivered, that detention conditions reflect a system operating far above design capacity, and that individual deaths, however grave, are being used to attack a policy that is working on its own stated terms. Critics argue that a record death toll, a homicide finding contradicted by the agency’s own account, a three-month data blackout, and a detained population that is 71% non-convicted describe a system operating without adequate oversight. Both of those arguments rest on facts in this dossier. The archive presents both and rates neither.
Tariffs · 5 documented stepsReversed / unfulfilled

The tariffs: collected for a year under an authority the Court says never existed

What happens when a policy is struck down after the money is already collected?

Tariffs imposed under emergency powers in February and April 2025 were ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court on February 20, 2026 in a 6–3 decision. Collection ceased two days later. A replacement was proclaimed under a different statute the same day. Up to $175 billion in refunds may be owed, and the mechanism for paying them is unresolved.

What happened, in sequence

February 4, 2025
First tranche
Tariffs tied to fentanyl trafficking are imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a statute that has never before been used to set tariffs in its 48-year history.
April 2, 2025
"Reciprocal" tariffs
Broad tariffs on nearly all imports follow, under the same authority.
2025
The Federal Circuit rules
Sitting en banc, the court characterizes the tariffs as "unbounded in scope, amount, and duration" and holds IEEPA does not authorize them.
February 20, 2026
The Supreme Court affirms, 6–3
In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Court holds that IEEPA "does not give the President authority to impose tariffs." Refund questions are remanded to the lower courts.
February 22, 2026
Collection ceased, and replaced under a new statute
All IEEPA tariffs end. A 10% global surcharge is proclaimed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a statute with its own limits, now itself in litigation. Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, resting on a separate authority with its own investigation requirement, are unaffected and remain at 50%.

Settled — not in dispute

The Supreme Court held that IEEPA never authorized tariffs. That legal question is closed.
Tariff costs were borne predominantly by US importers and consumers, not foreign exporters, consistent with peer-reviewed findings from the 2018–19 round.
Tariff revenue materially reduced the measured federal deficit while it was being collected.
Section 232 tariffs survived because they rest on a different statute.

Open — the evidence does not settle it

?Whether refunds will actually be paid, to whom, and on what timetable. Projections run to $175 billion and the mechanism is unresolved before the Court of International Trade.
?Whether the bilateral investment commitments negotiated using tariff leverage survive the leverage being removed.
?Whether the short-run price increases bought durable reshoring. This cannot yet be answered and the archive marks it open rather than guessing.

The strongest version of each side

The administration’s position is that the tariffs produced negotiating leverage that yielded investment commitments no prior approach obtained, and that the ruling was about which statute, not whether tariffs were wise. The critique is that a policy costing importers and consumers real money for a year rested on an authority six justices found had never permitted it, and that the same-day replacement under a different statute treats a constitutional limit as an obstacle to route around. The legal question is settled; the economic one is not.
Checks on power · 5 documented stepsIn force

Checks on power: five institutions, eight months

Inspectors general, a statistics chief, a Fed governor, four law firms, two prosecutions. Five institutions built to check or constrain the executive, pressured within eight months of each other: does grouping them assert a pattern?

Between January 24 and September 25, 2025, five institutions built to operate independently of, or as a check on, the executive branch each became the subject of executive action: inspectors general dismissed without the statutory notice Congress requires, law firms stripped of federal access for representing the President’s adversaries, a Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner fired after an unfavorable jobs report, a sitting Federal Reserve governor targeted for removal for the first time in the Fed’s history, and two of the President’s public critics indicted. Each of the five is already a separate, individually sourced entry in this archive. Nothing below is a new claim. What grouping them adds, and what it does not prove, is what this dossier is for.

What happened, in sequence

January 24, 2025
Inspectors general dismissed without notice
At least 17 inspectors general are removed by email, without the 30 days’ advance notice and case-specific reasons the Inspector General Act requires. A federal court later holds the removals violated that notice statute, but declines to order reinstatement. Many of the vacated posts are filled by acting officials rather than Senate-confirmed replacements.
March–April 2025
Law firms stripped of clearances for representing his adversaries
Executive orders strip security clearances and federal contracting eligibility from Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block, WilmerHale and Susman Godfrey, firms that had employed or represented the President’s adversaries. Several other firms reach agreements pledging pro bono services rather than face an order. All four firms that sue, win: district courts hold the orders unconstitutional retaliation violating the First, Fifth and Sixth Amendments.
August 1, 2025
The BLS commissioner is fired after a weak jobs report
Commissioner Erika McEntarfer is dismissed after a report showing 73,000 jobs added in July, which the President calls "rigged" and "phony." The statistical series continue to be published, including subsequent revisions unfavorable to the administration, and professional statistical associations across the political spectrum object publicly.
August 25, 2025
A sitting Fed governor is targeted for removal, a first
The administration announces the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations relating to mortgage applications predating her tenure, the first attempt by any president to remove a sitting Fed governor in the institution’s 112-year history. Cook contests the removal and remains in her seat through litigation that reaches the Supreme Court; as of this archive’s verification date, no final ruling has issued on whether a president may remove a governor at will.
September–October 2025
Two of his public critics are indicted, then both cases are dismissed
Federal indictments are brought against former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James (both public critics of the President) following a Truth Social post naming them and urging prosecution. A federal judge dismisses both cases in November 2025 on the ground that the US Attorney who obtained them had been unlawfully appointed; the dismissals are procedural and do not adjudicate the underlying allegations.

Settled — not in dispute

At least 17 inspectors general were removed without the 30 days’ notice the Inspector General Act requires, and a federal court found that violated the statute.
Every law-firm executive order that reached a court was struck down (four for four) as unconstitutional retaliation.
The BLS commissioner was fired after a weaker-than-expected jobs report; no specific methodological defect was identified in the stated justification.
No prior president had attempted to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor before this one.
Both prosecutions of Comey and James were dismissed on the ground that the prosecutor who brought them was unlawfully appointed, a procedural ruling that did not reach the merits of the underlying allegations.

Open — the evidence does not settle it

?Whether these five actions describe a coordinated strategy toward institutions built to check the executive, or five separate personnel and policy decisions that happen to share a shape and a timeframe. No document in this archive states or disproves coordination between them; grouping them here establishes shared subject matter, not a link.
?Whether a president may remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor at will. That question reached the Supreme Court and remains undecided as of this archive’s verification date.
?Whether the underlying allegations against Comey and James would have held up on the merits. Both cases were dismissed on an appointments-clause technicality before reaching that question, in either direction.

The strongest version of each side

The administration’s strongest case, taken instance by instance: inspectors general are removable, a BLS chief serves at the President’s discretion, the Fed governor faced allegations distinct from monetary policy, law-firm federal access is a discretionary contracting decision, and both prosecutions failed on an appointments technicality that says nothing about whether the underlying conduct occurred. None of the five, read alone, has been adjudicated in a way that forecloses the administration’s stated rationale. The critique’s strongest case: five institutions specifically built to operate independently of the executive (inspector-general oversight, statistical independence, central-bank independence, an adversarial bar, and prosecutorial discretion exercised without presidential direction) were each pressured within the same eight months, and in three of the five instances (the IG dismissals, the law-firm orders, the prosecutions) a court subsequently found the specific mechanism used unlawful or unconstitutional. Whether eight months of pressure on five different checks describes a strategy or a coincidence of timing is a judgment this archive does not make. What is documented is that all five happened, in this order, to these institutions, and that the individual outcomes above (two reversed, two still standing, one still litigated) are what each one actually produced, not what the pattern as a whole has been adjudicated to be.
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