The figures that matter most, each traceable to one entry and one named source.
Standing rule: no scores. Color marks whether something is in force, reversed, contested, concluded, or permanent, not good or bad.
Unscored · 97 entries · last change 2026-08-16
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Color is a legal fact, not an opinion. It shows (whether something is still in force, was reversed, or is contested in court), never whether it was good or bad.
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Public approval37% approve · 57% disapproveNet approval of roughly −21 is the lowest of either term, below his post-January-6 floor of −19. Independent approval near 34%.Polling averages, early August 2026
Next scheduled testMidterm elections, November 2026Three months out. Independent approval below the level that preceded the 2018 wave; the entire House and a third of the Senate are on the ballot.Election calendar
Figures of record
▲ and ▼ are direction. Color is measured : who paid, who gained, not whether that was right. Click a figure that has an entry. Not every figure here is a cost. Filter to just .
▲$2.8T
added to the national debt so far this term
18 months in; the JEC reported $2.77T year-over-year in April 2026
Net cost
Added since January 2025 — from $36.22T to roughly $39T. Borne by future taxpayers through debt service; sources put the range at $2.2T–$2.8T depending on cut-off.
Gross national debt · Treasury / Federal Reserve
▲54
more federal judges confirmed this term
On top of 234 in the first term
Transfer
9 appellate, 45 district. Ahead of the 2018 confirmation pace but with a far thinner pipeline — 60 nominees submitted against 137 by this date in 2018.
Lifetime judgeships filled this term · Senate confirmation record
▲369K
total jobs added, Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
vs. 1,565,000 in the final 14 months prior
Transfer
Positive but roughly a quarter the pace of the preceding 14 months. Private sector +609K, offset by federal cuts.
Total nonfarm employment · BLS via FactCheck.org
What this archive is made of
97 entries, 203 effect claims, 520 sourced estimates, 230 linked documents. Zero scores, grades, or rankings.
Where every entry stands today
Color here is a legal and operational fact, not an opinion: whether the action is still in force, was reversed or never fulfilled, is contested in court, has concluded, or is irreversible.
Coverage by domain
Bar segments show the standing mix inside each domain. Click any row to open it in the ledger.
The honesty check on the whole archive. If nearly everything claimed Direct, the archive would be overreaching. Amber marks claims where credible sources reach incompatible conclusions.
Direct138
Contributory28
Contextual20
Disputed17
What the evidence is made of
Every estimate in the archive, grouped by the kind of institution that produced it. Advocacy sources are admissible but never appear alone.
Primary document157
Government data79
Party to the action67
Academic / peer-reviewed52
Nonpartisan scorekeeper41
Advocacy — labeled31
Journalistic verification26
Named / interested parties24
Archive reasoning — not a source17
Cross-ideological convergence13
Mixed / other11
Polling aggregate2
The disagreement, charted
These are the numbers people argue with. Each bar is one published estimate at its own value, never averaged into a single figure, because the width of the gap is itself the finding.
10-year deficit effect — OBBBA
$ trillions, 2025–2034
CBO, excl. interest3.4
CBO, incl. interest4.1
CBO, dynamic (thru 2035)4.7
CRFB, if made permanent5.5
10-year deficit effect — TCJA
$ trillions
JCT, dynamic1.07
JCT, conventional1.46
CBO, incl. interest1.9
Project 2025 implementation — competing trackers
% of that tracker’s own agenda list
CPR / GFI — 532 proposals, method published53
Crowdsourced tracker — 317 objectives, no method48
Employment effect — steel & aluminum tariffs
jobs
Steel production jobs added1000
Steel-consuming mfg. jobs lost-75000
2024-06-09 · Taxes & budget · promise
Promise: no tax on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits
47 of 97
Layer 1 — Action
First stated as "no tax on tips" at a June 9, 2024 rally in Las Vegas, extended to overtime pay later in the campaign and to Social Security benefits by mid-2024, and repeated through the general election.
A cluster of individual tax-relief promises made across the 2024 campaign — first tips, then overtime pay, then Social Security benefits — enacted with real limits on two of the three and not enacted at all on the third.
Layer 2 —
Partially fulfilled
Tips and overtime pay each got a real, but capped and temporary, federal income-tax deduction, retroactive to January 1, 2025 and expiring December 31, 2028 — not the blanket "no tax" the promise's own wording states. Social Security specifically was not touched: the Senate's reconciliation rules bar direct changes to Social Security law, so Congress substituted an additional standard deduction for filers 65 and older, unconnected in form to whether Social Security income itself is taxed.
Verified as of August 2026
"No tax on tips" and "no tax on overtime" are commonly read as full exemptions; both are actually capped, income-tax-only deductions that expire after 2028 and leave payroll tax untouched. Separately, "no tax on Social Security" is often conflated with the senior deduction that was actually enacted — the two are not the same provision, and the enacted deduction phases out at income levels many Social Security recipients exceed.
Layer 3 — Measured effects
The enacted tips and overtime provisions are capped deductions with an expiration date, not a blanket tax exemption.
Deduction capped at $25,000/year for tips and $12,500/year ($25,000 joint) for overtime, phasing out above $150,000 single / $300,000 joint MAGI; both retroactive to January 1, 2025 and sunsetting December 31, 2028. Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes still apply to both tips and overtime pay — only federal income tax is affected.
Internal Revenue Service, "One, Big, Beautiful Bill: how to take advantage of no tax on tips and overtime"
Government data
$31.664 billion (tips) and $89.573 billion (overtime) in reduced federal revenue over fiscal years 2025-2034, under the reconciliation text as passed by the Senate and enacted as Public Law 119-21.
Joint Committee on Taxation, JCX-35-25 (July 1, 2025)
Nonpartisan congressional scorekeeper
The specific promise to eliminate taxation of Social Security benefits was not enacted; a different, broader senior deduction was substituted.
A temporary $6,000 additional deduction per filer 65 and older (up to $12,000 per couple), available tax years 2025-2028, phasing out between $75,000-$175,000 MAGI for single filers and $150,000-$250,000 for joint filers — a general senior deduction, not a Social Security tax exemption, structured this way because reconciliation rules bar directly changing Social Security law.
Kiplinger, "New $6,000 'Senior Bonus' Deduction: What It Means for Taxpayers Age 65 and Older"
Journalistic verification
A Joint Committee on Taxation official said roughly 24 million people would still pay some tax on their Social Security benefits under the enacted law. PolitiFact rated Trump's claim that the bill delivered "no tax on Social Security" Mostly False.
PolitiFact, "Trump says 'no tax on Social Security' with reconciliation bill. That's not true for everyone." (June 30, 2025)