The figures that matter most, each traceable to one entry and one named source.
Standing rule: no scores. Color marks whether something is in force, reversed, contested, concluded, or permanent, not good or bad.
Unscored · 97 entries · last change 2026-08-16
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Color is a legal fact, not an opinion. It shows (whether something is still in force, was reversed, or is contested in court), never whether it was good or bad.
Every number links to its source and to how strongly it can be tied to the action (). Click any figure to see the full evidence.
Nothing here is scored, graded, or ranked. When two credible sources disagree, this archive shows both numbers instead of picking one.
Wins are in here too. See or filter the Ledger by .
Nobody is asking you to trust a byline. There isn’t one — the archive is anonymous, on purpose, which is exactly why it has to be checkable without one. See and check one entry against its own source yourself.
Public approval37% approve · 57% disapproveNet approval of roughly −21 is the lowest of either term, below his post-January-6 floor of −19. Independent approval near 34%.Polling averages, early August 2026
Next scheduled testMidterm elections, November 2026Three months out. Independent approval below the level that preceded the 2018 wave; the entire House and a third of the Senate are on the ballot.Election calendar
Figures of record
▲ and ▼ are direction. Color is measured : who paid, who gained, not whether that was right. Click a figure that has an entry. Not every figure here is a cost. Filter to just .
▲$2.8T
added to the national debt so far this term
18 months in; the JEC reported $2.77T year-over-year in April 2026
Net cost
Added since January 2025 — from $36.22T to roughly $39T. Borne by future taxpayers through debt service; sources put the range at $2.2T–$2.8T depending on cut-off.
Gross national debt · Treasury / Federal Reserve
▲54
more federal judges confirmed this term
On top of 234 in the first term
Transfer
9 appellate, 45 district. Ahead of the 2018 confirmation pace but with a far thinner pipeline — 60 nominees submitted against 137 by this date in 2018.
Lifetime judgeships filled this term · Senate confirmation record
▲369K
total jobs added, Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
vs. 1,565,000 in the final 14 months prior
Transfer
Positive but roughly a quarter the pace of the preceding 14 months. Private sector +609K, offset by federal cuts.
Total nonfarm employment · BLS via FactCheck.org
What this archive is made of
97 entries, 203 effect claims, 520 sourced estimates, 230 linked documents. Zero scores, grades, or rankings.
Where every entry stands today
Color here is a legal and operational fact, not an opinion: whether the action is still in force, was reversed or never fulfilled, is contested in court, has concluded, or is irreversible.
Coverage by domain
Bar segments show the standing mix inside each domain. Click any row to open it in the ledger.
The honesty check on the whole archive. If nearly everything claimed Direct, the archive would be overreaching. Amber marks claims where credible sources reach incompatible conclusions.
Direct138
Contributory28
Contextual20
Disputed17
What the evidence is made of
Every estimate in the archive, grouped by the kind of institution that produced it. Advocacy sources are admissible but never appear alone.
Primary document157
Government data79
Party to the action67
Academic / peer-reviewed52
Nonpartisan scorekeeper41
Advocacy — labeled31
Journalistic verification26
Named / interested parties24
Archive reasoning — not a source17
Cross-ideological convergence13
Mixed / other11
Polling aggregate2
The disagreement, charted
These are the numbers people argue with. Each bar is one published estimate at its own value, never averaged into a single figure, because the width of the gap is itself the finding.
10-year deficit effect — OBBBA
$ trillions, 2025–2034
CBO, excl. interest3.4
CBO, incl. interest4.1
CBO, dynamic (thru 2035)4.7
CRFB, if made permanent5.5
10-year deficit effect — TCJA
$ trillions
JCT, dynamic1.07
JCT, conventional1.46
CBO, incl. interest1.9
Project 2025 implementation — competing trackers
% of that tracker’s own agenda list
CPR / GFI — 532 proposals, method published53
Crowdsourced tracker — 317 objectives, no method48
Fentanyl-trafficking tariffs from February 4, 2025; "reciprocal" tariffs from April 2, 2025, both under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Broad tariffs on nearly all imports imposed under emergency powers, ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court in February 2026, and immediately replaced with a narrower authority.
Layer 2 —
Invalidated — collection ceased February 22, 2026; replaced under Section 122
In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, decided 6-3 on February 20, 2026, Chief Justice Roberts writing, the Supreme Court held that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs — affirming the Federal Circuit’s en banc ruling of August 29, 2025. CBP announced it would stop assessing IEEPA duties on February 22, 2026 (CSMS #67834313). A 10% global surcharge was proclaimed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, itself now in litigation and statutorily limited to 150 days. Remedies were remanded to the Court of International Trade, where refund proceedings are underway. Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs are unaffected and continue.
Verified as of August 2026
The legal question is now settled. The economic question — whether short-run price increases bought durable reshoring — cannot yet be answered, and the archive marks it open rather than guessing.
Layer 3 — Measured effects
The tariffs were collected for roughly a year under an authority the Court found never permitted them.
The Court held IEEPA "does not give the President authority to impose tariffs," affirming the Federal Circuit.
Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (2026)
Primary document
Up to $175 billion in refunds projected; IEEPA duties represented roughly half of all customs duties collected.
Penn Wharton Budget Model
Academic budget model — nonpartisan
More than $170 billion in IEEPA tariffs collected through the ruling date, with the refund pathway dependent on further CIT proceedings.
PwC analysis of CBP and Treasury data
Practitioner analysis of government data
Justice Kavanaugh noted in dissent that refunds may be owed even where importers already passed costs on to consumers, which is an argument against full refunds rather than for them.
Dissenting opinion, via CRS
Primary document
The Federal Circuit had characterized the tariffs as "unbounded in scope, amount, and duration."
US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, en banc, 2025
Judicial record
The Court reasoned that tariff power is "very clear[ly] ... a branch of the taxing power" reserved to Congress under Article I.
Opinion text
Primary document
Cost incidence during the period in effect.
Tariff costs were borne predominantly by US importers and consumers rather than foreign exporters, consistent with 2018-19 findings.
Peer-reviewed trade economics literature
Academic / peer-reviewed
Tariff revenue collected materially reduced the measured federal deficit during the period.
Treasury monthly statements
Government statistical series
Several bilateral investment commitments were negotiated using tariff leverage; their durability after the ruling is unresolved.